Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Election over throne speech?

My answer: quite likely. Here is what I think each party's motives/thoughts are:

Conservatives:
The Tories have been trying for quite some time to reach 40% in the polls, which is generally considered the minimum support needed to form a majority. This week, they met that goal. Harper and his party desperately want a majority government. Now that they're this far, a decently financed election (which is something they can do) could be enough to actually obtain that majority.

Additionally, Harper has been setting the stage for an election, by taunting the Liberals to either support their throne speech or face an election. To me, this looks like Harper thinks his speech won't be an instant sell to the Grits.

Liberals:
On one hand, Dion and the Liberals are in no health to fight (never mind win) an election. On the other, supporting Harper's throne speech (which he is making sound a bit more radical than we are used to) is only going to make Dion look worse.

However, Dion has been hinting that he very well might vote against the speech. If he thought he wouldn't support it, he wouldn't have done all the ranting against it—and against the possibility of his party supporting it.

NDP and the Bloc Québecois:
Both of these parties seem as though they are prepared to, and will, vote against the government as long as its speech isn't a left-wing suck-up (which it probably won't be).

There's what I think. What's on your mind?

4 comments:

Cliff said...

The Conservatives poll numbers have risen before - they never get any long term inflation and will be dropping again soon. The current spike is purely a reaction to the Libs disarray; It's like the Canadian dollar, its not so much how high its risen just its status in comparison to the American dollars drop.

The Libs should be thinking about going to the polls now. They won't. They will be supporting the government tonight and when they chicken out and do it will drive another nail into their credibility and the 'Liberal, Tory, Same old story' narrative gets a huge boost.

I have no time for 'unite the left' fantasies anymore. We should be putting the boots to the Liberals while they're down to keep them there. Anti-scab, Dion's recent bowing and scraping to Bay Street and his self description as an 'economic right winger' makes it clear the Liberals are not progressive allies and we should be hammering away at their claims to be.

This is a moment. A moment where the potential for the NDP to become the progressive alternative to Stephen Harper is a real possibility.

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