Thursday, March 1, 2007

A spring election over the budget?

While lots of the political pundits and journalists are saying that we won't have an election until fall, or even 2008, I am thinking now that we are going to have one very soon.

Why? Well, of course, it's just about budget day (March 19). I am quite sure that Jack and the NDP will not support the budget, unless they could strike a deal to modify the budget, like they did in 2005. I don't think Jack wants to break his record for the only party to vote against the Tory government on every single confidence vote. But the Bloc is a different story. They supported the last Flaherty budget in 2006, and it's more likely that they will support the upcoming budget, as it is expected to include big bucks for Québec.

And the Liberals are an even longer story. For one, they are not doing too good in the polls. But, they should look like they are working in the best interests of Canadians, and it would not be good to have voting to keep themselves alive on their record. Also, they are always complaining about everything that Harper does to Canada, especially concerning the environment. And it is also not expected that the upcoming budget will be 'Liberal-worthy'.   So I would think that the Liberals would want to look like the heros and rescue Canada from Harper, as long as they don't cause an election where Harper gets a majority.

Even if the government does fall soon, it wouldn't be a sin. The average minority government lasts about 1 year 5 months, meaning that if this were an average minority government, the next election would be late June, early July.

But I think that, no matter what happens later this month, we should all start preparing for an election; this Parliament can't last forever.


Anonymous said...

K, the Liberals are too chicken for an election. The polls aren't looking good for them. I'll start preping in the fall.

Kuri said...

If anyone props up the Cons, I'm pretty sure it will be the Bloc.

Jackie said...

From the poll results released today, I'm guessing that the Conservatives are going to try to make a VERY right-wing budget so that no one can vote for it, in order to cause an election.