Monday, March 19, 2007

An election over the budget?

Happy Federal Budget Day!!   While we are not sure on the specifics of today's budget, we have been told a lot already by Finance Minister Flaherty. There are going to be tax cuts, equalization changes and funding, and money for public transit. But the thing is that he did not release any information which would be able to have political parties actually discussing right now. So because of that, we don't know for certain what the parties are going to do.

But that doesn't mean I can't guess. Here is what I think each parties reaction might be to the budget (based on what I think is going to be in it):


  • The Liberals still aren't in a position to face an election; their poll numbers are far too down for them. So their vote really depends on if the budget is even somewhat supportable, or if it is completely filled with right-wing tax cuts, etc. If it is even somewhat supportable, they'll definitely find an excuse to support it (maybe they'll say that they are standing up for Canadians who don't want an election). If it is the latter (tax cuts, etc.), they might have a more difficult time finding excuses (and Canadians won't sympathize with them if they vote for a true Tory budget).

Bloc Québecois:
  • If I had to guess, I'd guess that they'll support the budget. Most political analysts are certain that this budget will contain big bucks for Québec, and some money for the environment. So if it includes enough for Québec (to the Bloc's standards), they'll have to support it (and they're not soaring in the polls, either).

  • The NDP is a more complicated story. There is one thing I can bet on, though, and that is that if there is one other opposition party who supports the budget (as that would keep the government afloat), the NDP will vote against it. It would be a real shame to destroy the NDP's track-record of voting against this government on every confidence motion, unless it is necessary. But if both of the other parties vote against the government, that'll be much more complicated, and that decision would be completely based on the specifics and every little tidbit of funding in today's budget.

So will there be an election over this budget? Only time will tell.

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