Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Poll Time

There was a very descriptive poll released last night by the Strategic Council for CTV and The Globe and Mail. The questions and answers are quite interesting, and are thus worthy of an article. Here are the results for the different categories:

Overall Opinion Poll

(changed based on Dec. 3rd poll)
Conservatives: 34% (+3)
Liberals: 29% (-8)
NDP: 14% (same)
Greens: 12% (+5)
Bloc: 11% (same)

Best Approach to the environment

Liberals: 23%
NDP: 21%
Conservatives: 20%

Who is the most decisive

Harper: 53%
Layton: 20%
Dion: 19%

Meanwhile, when asked which party leader had the clearest vision of where he wants to take the country, Harper showed a significant lead over his rivals

(percentage-point change from a Dec. 3-4 poll in brackets)

Stephen Harper: 50 per cent (+ 18)
Stephane Dion: 22 per cent (- 16 from when Paul Martin was leader)
Jack Layton: 20 per cent (+ 1)
Gilles Duceppe: 8 per cent (- 4)

Here are the results when voters were asked who was the most charismatic

(percentage-point change from a Dec. 3-4 poll in brackets)

Harper: 35 per cent (+ 18)
Dion: 20 per cent (- 9 from when Martin was leader)
Layton: 36 per cent (- 2)
Duceppe: 10 per cent (- 4)

There you have it. Let's look at Jack Layton's achievements in this poll:
  • Most Charismatic
  • Second best approach to the Environment
  • More decisive than Dion

This knowledge is really good to have. While Harper is (for some reason) surpassing everyone in just about everything, the NDP is getting to be a more recognized party. All we need to work on now is the overall opinion of the NDP.


rob said...

The NDP is only 2 points ahead of the Greens. There is no way to spin that into a positive for the NDP.

Alex said...

When people go to the polls, they sometimes change their mind at that point. They realize that the NDP is the only real opposition to Dion & Harper; May is not really a leader.

And anyway, the Greens are not a direct competitor to the NDP. People often think of the NDP and the Greens being practically the same, but they aren't. The only close area is the environment. In fact, I do think Elizabeth May once agreed on this point that the Greens are not competing for NDP votes, but for Conservative votes.

Saskatory said...

Actually, May has stated numerous times that the Greens are drawing votes from ALL parties. However, it should nevertheless be a concern to the NDP, as a third place party (in most areas). And Alex, what do you mean May isn't a real leader? This is a mistake that both you and the conductors of this poll made. I bet if she was included in the leader questions, she would have scored quite high, especially in the charismatic category, for she is, IMO, the most charismatic of any leader.

The Greens are going to continue to climb and as much as NDP supporters want to deny that they are stealing voters from them and are actually stealing from the Conservatives, the NDP will not fare well. I think that we will see NDP voters in this past election who maybe had been Liberals before (those who Layton pleaded to lend their vote) going to the Greens, as well as those who jumped on the Dion bandwagon thinking he'd be an advocate for the environment but now realize he lacks substance.

Overall, this was not a good poll for the NDP, no matter how you've tried to spin it.

Yes, Layton was considered most charismatic - but he always has been. The real story is that this time it was by much less (only 1% more than Harper who made an 18% increase while Layton fell 2%)

Yes, the NDP was considered to have the 2nd best approach to the Environment, but they are virtually tied with the other two main parties and given the margin of error could be considered in last place.

Yes, more decisive than Dion but by 1% and less than half of what Haper received.

To say that this poll revealed anything good for the NDP is grasping at its finest. I mean, we all know that the NDP is out of touch with reality but it is just absurd to think that the "NDP is getting to be a more recognized party." If anything it is a party in freefall. Welcome back to the Alexa McDonough era of NDP obscurity.

Anonymous said...

Saskatory, you're the most pesimistic person I've ever met. I guess you are a Tory, so I can't blame you.

Sure, Harper's doing good now, but not forever. No one though Tommy Douglas would win when he did …