Wednesday, January 10, 2007

NDP in 2007

What does 2007 hold for the NDP? Recent polls have said that the NDP is losing support, mainly to the Greens, and the Liberals have a new 'environment' leader.

Results of Dec. 2006 Environics Poll (quoted from CBC Politics, Monday, Jan. 8, 07)


          Oct '06 Dec '06  
Cons 37 34
Lib 28 32
NDP 18 14
GPC 7 11
BQ 9 8

+/- 2.3% 19 times out of 20

Atlantic
Lib 37 33
Cons 37 32
NDP 21 26
GPC 5 9

+/- 6.1% 19 times out of 20

Quebec
BQ 38 36
Lib 18 24
Cons 24 18
NDP 12 12
GPC 7 8

+/- 4.4% 19 times out of 20

Ontario
Lib 38 39
Cons 35 36
NDP 20 12
GPC 7 12

+/- 4% 19 times out of 20

Manitoba
Cons 53 38
Lib 26 34
NDP 16 19
GPC 4 8

+/- 8.7% 19 times out of 20

Saskatchewan
Cons 50 40
Lib 25 26
NDP 13 23
GPC 9 10

+/- 8.5% 19 times out of 20

Alberta
Cons 61 60
Lib 15 16
GPC 11 14
NDP 10 11

+/- 6.9% 19 times out of 20

BC
Cons 37 36
Lib 25 35
NDP 28 17
GPC 9 11

+/- 6.5% 19 times out of 20

First of all, the polls show less support for the NDP. But as Jack Layton always points out, this is where the NDP was in the polls this time last year, and they went from 18 to 29 seats anyway. He says that while people may say in a poll that they are a 'Greenie' or a Liberal, they start to think at the polls, "Who is actually going to get things done?", and sure enough, they vote NDP.
As I have already posted in the past, I really don't believe what polls say (and I think more people should share this view with me). Most national polls have a margin of error of +/- 3 or 4%. So whatever the poll says, it could be up to 4% off. They are also 19 times out of 20, meaning that 1 time out of 20, the results mean splat. And they poll about 1,100 people or so. What about the other 15 million+ people who are also registered voters? So while polls can often tell if a party will win a majority or not, it really doesn't mean much.

Stéphane Dion, is he really the answer to saving the environment? I highly doubt it. Now I may think otherwise if he used to be the Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, but he was the Minister of the Environment, and that can usually give a good record of whether someone can truly help the environment. Not to sound like Harper, but after 13 years of Liberal government, what really happened for the environment? As you probably know, Green House Gasses went up. While the Conservatives are worse, the Liberals weren't something to brag about (yet despite their wrongs, they are still proud of PM Martin's "accomplishments").

So what will the NDP do in 2007? The NDP seems quite fixated on bank charges, and, of course, there is the environment, which will be one of the biggest issues in the foreseeable future. Especially with the new balance of power given to the NDP (thanks to Mr. Khan), the NDP should have some good opportunities to amend the Conservative Clean Air Act. And, of course, there will be a lot of political game playing in 2007, with the possibility of an election.

Finally, to the Greens rising. This is something that can seriously hurt the NDP, and therefore should be taken seriously. As New Democrats, we have to show Canadians that the Greens are not as 'holy' as they tell us. Many Canadians think that the Green Party is much different primarily because they say that they don't play political games, and will get stuff done. But they have never been elected, so why would they be different? I am quite sure that when—or if— they ever get a seat, that Canadians will finally see that the Green Party is just another political party, that it is not 'holy', and that they don't get more things done than the NDP. In fact, I doubt that it is possible to do more good than the NDP. The NDP is—and always will be—the political party that: a) gets stuff done; b) supports the environment (and takes the best steps possible to fix that); and c) the NDP is the only party that protects the working family.

5 comments:

SammySam said...

Great post. I sure hope that the NDP can significantly amend the Clean Air Act. Yeah, the polls don't mean much, I don't know why people bother to do them.

greyburr said...

Bought me a green scarf,gonna get me a wiener dog and call it 'old greener'.All ready to vote ,but for who?Now if Jack can really hold either of the Steves feet to the fire and do something about them banker bastards ,I may just vote Dipper!

Alex said...

Hey greyburr,
sure you do "vote Dipper"!
Now that the NDP holds the balance of power in the House of Commons, Jack is quite able to hold the two "Steves feet to the fire". The NDP has a strong intention (a very new one, too) in 2007 to do something about bank fees. If you read that link to the NDP site about, you would see that Mr. Flaherty does not seem too excited about that idea, but if the other opposition parties like the idea (at least they're somewhat left), it could work. And one of the best parts: the NDP gets credit! They started the push first!

wilson61 said...

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/

check out Monday video for a break down on the poll.

NDP up in Quebec - 5, down in Ontario - 8 (to the greens),
up in Sask - 10, down in BC - 11 (to the Libs)

Alex said...

Thanks wilson for posting that. I couldn't find that on the web. At least we're gaining in Québec and Saskatchewan, but if we can show the BCers and Ontarians who the Liberals and Greens really are, we could have a very good next election.